Milan vs Liverpool Prediction: Arne’s first UCL Match with the Reds

Milan vs Liverpool is a classic UEFA Champions League fixture by any stretch of the imagination. Mention both these teams in a sentence and people immediately talk about the Miracle of Istanbul. It has been 19 years since that iconic final, and now these teams meet in the first round of this years league stage of the UEFA Champions League. 

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Team News

Milan will be without Ismael Bennacer, who suffered a serious calf injury while on international duty with Algeria earlier on this month. Alessandro Florenzi sustained an ACL setback in pre-season and won't be avialable for a few weeks. In addition Marco Sportiello suffered a freak hand injury before the Serie A season kicked off. Malick Thiaw and Davide Calabria are both doubts for this match.

Harvey Elliot, Jayden Danns and James McConnell are all unavailable for the reds. Federico Chiesa was omitted from the Liverpool squad against Nottingham Forest as he continues to adjust to life in England. He is tipped as one of the players who will feature against Milan on Tuesday Evening.

Milan Predicted Line-up (4-3-3): Maignan, Royal, Gabbia, Pavlovic, Hernandez, Loftus-Cheek, Fofana, Reijnders, Leao, Abraham, Pulisic.

Liverpool Predicted Line-up (4-2-3-1): Alison, Robertson, Van Dijk, Konate, Bradley, Endo, Jones, Mac Allister, Gakpo, Nunez, Salah.

3 Way - Liverpool 27/10

Arne Slot suffered his first defeat of the season last time out, against Nottingham Forest in the Premier League. Passes were not connecting, players looked to be out of sync with each other and goal scoring opportunity came and went without a single shot finding the back of the net. Liverpool dominated every stat in their match against Nottingham Forest. They enjoyed 69% of the possession, 11 more shots at goal, 5 more corners, 9 more fouls and 331 more passes. Unfortunately for Arne Slot and his team, this wouldn't be enough to secure a goal and the three points up for grabs.

With Liverpool's attention now fixed on the UEFA Champions League. Arne Slot can find comfort in the fact that Liverpool has 5 wins in row against Milan. Their last match at the San Siro ended in a 1-2 victory for Liverpool. Mo Salah opened the scoring on that day, with Divock Origi making it 1-2 in the 55th minute, Tyler Morton, Ibrahima Konate and Tsimikas all started that match with Liverpool having a lengthy injury list at the time. Those players listed above may still feature in this match.

Overall win probability states that Liverpool has a 50% chance of winning this fixture. 25% is reserved for the draw and Milan has a 25% chance of walking away with the win, Since 2005 Liverpool has won 86% of their meetings against Milan. This time, I am of the impression that win probability is correct.

Total Goals - Over 2.5 59/100

Milan's Manager, Paulo Fonseca will be concerned with his teams defensive form. They have been involved in 6 matches, where there was more than 2.5 goals scored. They have conceded six goals in their first four opening matches of the season. This is in addition to the fact that they have failed to keep a clean sheet against Liverpool in their last seven meetings. You can expect this game to be no different, with at least three goals scored between the two sides.

Total Bookings - Under 4.5 61/100

Milan and Liverpool has been a fixture that produces goals. When these two teams have met in the past, they both found the net, in 5 out of their last 7 matches. Liverpool opened the scoring in 4 out of their last 5 matches. Despite the goals, this match has been very well mannered with the last seven meetings producing less than 4.5 cards.

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