Switzerland vs Italy Prediction: Can Swiss punch holes in Italian defence?
The round of 16 gets underway in Berlin on Saturday afternoon as Switzerland face Italy for a place in the quarter-finals. It promises to be a thrilling clash as the two teams that finished second in Groups A and B collide. Remember, this is now knockout football, so extra-time and penalties are a distinct possibility, and we will find a winner on the day.
This is when the real excitement begins and I can’t wait for the knockout action to get underway. Switzerland reached the quarter-finals of the last Euros by knocking France out in the last 16 on penalties, while Italy went all the way and are the reigning champions. This should be an intriguing tie, and below you can find my Switzerland vs Italy predictions.
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Luciano Spalletti changed things up in his final group game by switching from a back four to a back three. However, with Matteo Darmian included, the Italians underperformed and only rescued a point against Croatia with a dramatic last-minute goal from Mattia Zaccagni. The Lazio winger is unlikely to break into the XI however, while Gianluca Scamacca is almost certain to start in the number nine role.
For Switzerland, Murat Yakin could choose to name the same XI as the side that drew 1-1 with Germany to secure their place in the knockout stages. They would have won Group A had they not conceded a last minute equaliser, as they played a defensive 3-4-3 system. The one man left on the bench who you would expect to feature is Xherdan Shaqiri, who scored that wonder goal against Scotland. Breel Embolo is expected to continue up front.
Switzerland are priced at 57/50 to qualify, which is the market we will look at rather than the 90 minute result. A draw can be backed at 41/20 while Italy to qualify is 7/5. Over 2.5 goals in 90 minutes is just 73/50 and BTTS is 21/20.
Switzerland to qualify @ 57/50
I haven’t been all that impressed with Italy so far in Euro 2024. They scraped past Albania, were second best against Spain in defeat and then only just qualified in second place thanks to that injury-time equaliser against Croatia. That came eight minutes into stoppage time, which was a questionable amount of injury time, and they didn’t at any point look like a strong outfit in the first three games.
Given the squad at their disposal, I can’t see that changing here. Meanwhile, Switzerland were excellent against Hungary and Germany and arguably should have topped the group. They’ve got a well-organised cohesive unit at their disposal and while I don’t believe this will be a thrilling match, I think they can get the job done in normal time or extra time. We are getting a decent price on them to qualify here, perhaps because of the fact that Italy are the defending champions. But they are not the team they once were.
Under 1.5 goals in 90 mins @ 33/20
Italy have looked stagnant from an attacking point of view so far during this tournament. They’ve also conceded in every game so far which makes me believe that Switzerland are on course for a narrow victory. Having said that, Switzerland have also conceded and scored in every group game so far, although the last 16 will bring different pressures.
I expect both teams to approach this one in a very cagey manner, with neither side wanting to concede the first goal, and the initiative to the opposition. I think we won’t see more than one goal in normal time, with 0-0 and extra-time a real possibility here. As a result, I’m comfortable backing under 1.5 goals @ 33/20.
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