Italy vs Turkey Prediction: Euro 2020 winners search for a clean sheet

 | Monday 3rd June 2024, 12:52pm

Monday 3rd June 2024, 12:52pm

Italy take on Turkey as two of the automatic qualifiers for Euro 2024 meet in a friendly in Bologna on Tuesday night. Now it’s easy to forget that Italy are the current reigning champions of the Euros after they failed to qualify for the last two World Cups, but after beating England at Wembley in 2021, that is the case. 

To warm up for this tournament, they will host Turkey, who cruised through qualifying in style, but conceded six to Austria last time out. This poses to be an intriguing clash on Tuesday night and below you can find my Italy vs Turkey prediction. 

Italy vs Turkey Betting Tips

  • Under 2.5 goals @ 51/50
  • Italy to win to nil @ 33/20

Team News

Luciano Spalletti still has work to do with his initial 30-man squad, but Francesco Acerbi will now miss Euro 2024 having undergone groin surgery. Gianluigi Donnarumma is one of the only certainties, as the new captain will wear the armband here, and in Germany after Ciro Immobile was left out. 

Gianluca Scamacca will miss this one, along with Giorgio Scalvini as the delayed Atalanta vs Fiorentina game only took place on Sunday. Nicolo Fagioli could start here after his surprise call up, while Mateo Retegui should start up front. 

Turkey will need to work out what they are doing defensively as Caglar Soyuncu and Ridvan Yilmaz have both failed to make their Euro 2024 squad. Hakan Calhanoglu, a familiar face to Italian fans, was named Serie A midfielder of the year after winning the title with Inter Milan, and should play here. Ugurcan Cakir is set to beat Manchester United’s Atlay Bayindir to the starting place in goal, as the latter has barely played this season. 

Italy vs Turkey Match Odds

Italy are priced at 29/50 to win this game, with Turkey available at 23/5. A draw after 90 minutes can be backed at 14/5, BTTS is 4/5 and over 2.5 goals is 37/50.

Under 2.5 goals @ 51/50

I don’t see this game being packed full of goals. Even though Turkey have a few defensive issues to solve, and they conceded six goals against Austria in their last fixture, I don’t think Italy are the most vibrant attacking international team. 

Often they struggle to create chances, and having lost to England home and away in qualifying, I think it is fair to suggest they are not quite amongst the elite nations heading into Euro 2024. Italy drew 0-0 with Ukraine in their final qualifier, and although I think they will win this game, with all of the expected changes, and both sides prioritising the finals themselves, I think we may see a slow tempo match in Bologna. 

At above EVS, I’m happy to back under 2.5 goals as both teams try to finalise their preferred starting XI. 

Italy to win to nil @ 33/20

Although I don’t think this will be a classic or a game full of goals, I am still backing the home side to get the job done in an uneventful encounter. This is not a stellar generation of Italian players, but they are difficult to beat in tournament football, and I expect them to get into their rhythm as we approach Euro 2024.

They should be able to find the net at least one against a Turkey side who haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last four games. They drew 1-1 with Wales, but the real concern came against Austria as they gave away two penalties in that 6-1 defeat. I think Italy will be conservative here, but they should be able to limit Turkey to a handful of chances, and secure a comfortable win to nil.  

Check out our other Soccer Betting Predictions here. 

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