Leeds vs Southampton Prediction: Saints can secure promotion at Wembley

On Sunday, Leeds and Southampton will meet in the Championship play-off final to battle it out for a place in the Premier League. Wembley awaits for the richest game in football, with the riches of the top flight worth around £170m to the winner. 

For the loser, it's another season in the Championship and the likely decimation of their talented squad. There’s an awful lot on the line for this one, and below you can find my Leeds vs Southampton prediction.

Team News

Leeds striker Patrick Bamford is unlikely to be fit for this final, but aside from that, Daniel Farke’s squad is looking strong. He must choose whether to start with Wilfried Gnonto or Daniel James on the right, after the Italian started against Norwich but was left out of Italy’s Euro 2024 squad. 

Both Che Adams and Ross Stewart were absent from a recent training video released by Southampton, but I expect they will both play some part here. Russell Martin’s big decision will be whether to play three centre-backs, as he did against Leeds on the final day and in the first leg of the play-off semi-final, or whether to go to a back four. The more attacking system saw Saints dismantle West Brom in the second leg, but the back three has worked well against this vibrant Leeds attack. 

I expect the former Norwich player to start with Ryan Manning and Kyle Walker-Peters as wing-backs, with Jack Stephens, Jan Bednerek and Taylor Harwood-Bellis in the centre of defence. 

Leeds vs Southampton Match Odds

Leeds are the favourites to win this final, priced at 16/25 to gain promotion, while Southampton are 26/23. A draw after 90 minutes can be backed at 9/4, over 2.5 goals 22/25 and BTTS is 69/100. 

Southampton to win the final @ 26/23

This is an extremely close final, and a tough one to predict. But I’m siding with Southampton here for a couple of reasons. Firstly, they did the league double over Leeds during the regular season, beating them 3-1 at home and 2-1 away on the final day. That victory over Leeds at Elland Road was sensational, and they managed to nullify Leeds’ attacking threat. 

I also think that their style of play will suit the big Wembley pitch, and they may cope with this final better than Leeds will. Leeds have reached a play-off final for the fourth time, failing to win promotion in each of the previous three. The big occasion could cause them issues, and they may choke on the big stage again. 

Adam Armstrong to score anytime @ 21/10

I think Southampton will win this final, so for me it makes sense to back their top scorer and penalty taker to get at least one. Armstrong has plenty of Premier League experience and has scored 23 goals in 48 Championship matches this season.. 

Perhaps importantly for this final, his record against Leeds is also strong. He has scored three in two games against the Whites this season, bagging once on the final day, and twice at St Mary’s. It seems as though Farke has been unable to stop the dynamic forward so far, and with even more space on this big pitch, he could do some damage. 

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