Olympiacos vs Fiorentina Prediction: Greek side can party in Athens
We’ve got an absolutely belting Europa Conference League final to look forward to on Wednesday night (20:00, TNT Sports 1), as Olympiacos take on Fiorentina in Athens. It’s set to be a belting atmosphere, as there is just 14km separating the OPAP Arena, where the final is taking place, and the home of Olympiacos - the Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
Winning their first European title at the home of AEK Athens would be something truly special, but Fiorentina are ready to spoil the part and gain revenge, having lost last year’s final to West Ham United. Below you can find my Olympiacos vs Fiorentina prediction.
Team News
Olympiacos have a fully fit squad as we head into this final. Even though former Wolves man Daniel Podence was sent off against Panathinaikos last time out, his suspension only counts for domestic matches. Goalscoring sensation Ayoub El Kaabi will be targeting another goal here having dumped Aston Villa out at the semi-final stage.
Meanwhile, Fiorentina will be without academy star Riccardo Sottil after he broke his collarbone earlier this month. M’Bala Nzola is likely to start on the bench on his return from injury while Arthur Melo will play in the centre of the park alongside Rolando Mandragora.
Olympiacos vs Fiorentina Match Odds
Olympiacos are the outsiders for this one, priced at 39/20 to win in 90 minutes. Fiorentina can be backed at 33/25 giving them a win probability of 43%. A draw after 90 minutes is 11/5, BTTS is 89/100 and over 2.5 goals is 55/47.
BTTS @ 89/100
This final screams goals. Olympiakos scored six times over two legs against Premier League side Aston Villa, as Unai Emery’s team crumbled under the pressure of their semi-final. El Kaabi is having the season of his life and has now scored 32 goals in 49 games this season, so I fully expect the Greek side, backed by a vociferous local support, to find the net against Fiorentina.
Meanwhile the Italians have seen both teams score in each of their last eight fixtures in all competitions. They beat Cagliari 3-2 last time out, while they got past Club Brugge in the semi-final, winning a thrilling tie 4-3 on aggregate. I see no reason why this shouldn’t be an equally entertaining affair, even though it is a final.
Olympiacos to win and BTTS @ 27/5
Let’s pick a winner then, and I think there is real value in backing the Greek side to get the job done. Although they finished third in their domestic league behind PAOK and AEK Athens, they have been exceptional in Europe and those wins over Villa - home and away - have given me huge confidence heading into this final.
I think with the home backing of playing just 20 minutes from their home stadium will make a huge difference, and Fiorentina could be in for a second final defeat in two years. There’s plenty of goals up for grabs here, so I’m happy to back BTTS of course, but the real value lies in going for the Greek side to win in 90 minutes.
Check out our other Soccer Betting Predictions here.
