Spain vs Croatia Prediction: La Roja set for statement win

 | Friday 14th June 2024, 11:45am

Friday 14th June 2024, 11:45am

Spain come into Euro 2024 in flying form, having scored 13 goals in their last three matches, including three against Brazil in a thrilling 3-3 draw. Their first opponents in Group C are Croatia, who have been a wonderful international team over the past few years. 

Under Zlatko Dalic they reached the World Cup final in 2018, before also reaching the semi-final of the 2022 edition, only losing to Argentina in the final four. At Euro 2020 they were beaten by Saturday’s opponents Spain 5-3 after extra-time in the round of 16, so Dalic and his experienced players will be looking for revenge here. Below you can find my Spain vs Croatia prediction. 

Spain vs Croatia Betting Tips

  • Spain to win @ 22/25
  • Alvaro Morata to score anytime @ 33/20

Team News

All eyes will be on Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal on Saturday. He should start the game, and if he does, he will become the youngest ever player to appear at a European Championship, at just 16 years and 338 days old. He will nearly be a full 12 months younger than the previous record-holder, Poland's Kacper Kozlowski. 

He should start on the right wing, with Morata up front and Nico Wiliams on the opposite wing. Rodri will pull the strings in midfield while Unai Simon is expected to get the nod over David Raya in goal.

For Croatia, the midfield trio of Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic and Marcelo Brozovic are still going strong. All three started the World Cup semi-final against England in 2018, and they are the backbone of Croatia’s success. Ivan Perisic is back from his ACL injury and should also provide tournament experience going forward. 

Predicted Spain XI: Simon, Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Grimaldo, Rodri, Olmo, Ruiz, Yamal, Morata, Williams.

Predicted Croatia XI: Livakovic, Stanisic, Vida, Gvardiol, Sosa, Brozovic, Kovacic, Modric, Kramaric, Petkovic, Perisic.

Spain vs Croatia Odds

Spain are 22/25 to win this game, giving them a win probability of 53%, while Croatia are priced at 17/5 to win their opener. A draw can be backed at 49/20, BTTS is 23/25 and over 2.5 goals is 21/20.

Spain to win @ 22/25

I actually think Spain will have a pretty successful tournament. They aren’t regarded as one of the big favourites, but they have a solid squad, with plenty of options all over the pitch. They’ve also got some of the best young players in world football at their disposal. We’ve already talked about Yamal, who has been sensational for Barcelona this term, but Williams is only 21 on the opposite flank and those two should provide excellent entertainment, as well as end product. 

Croatia are always tough to beat, but they are reaching the end of this cycle. I still think they will finish above Italy in this group and qualify, but I fancy them to be beaten by a Spain team who I think will impress many with a statement win. Rodri is the best defensive midfielder in the world, and Luis de la Fuente has got his team playing a strong brand of football. I fancy them to win this opening game.

Alvaro Morata to score anytime @ 33/20

Spain captain Morata may not get the plaudits he deserves, but I think he can also have a profitable tournament. He’s scored 35 goals in 73 games in his international career, and has been in good form for Atletico Madrid as well this term, notching 21 goals across 48 matches in all competitions. 

After a torrid time at Chelsea, I think he has repaired his reputation in his homeland, and I think he will surprise a few pundits this tournament with his finishing ability. I think he can score at some point in a Spain win. 

Check out our other Soccer Betting Predictions here. 

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